Horse Race Wagering

True Class Today

Thoroughbred Horse Racing at Santa Anita Park

Algorithms assign numerical ratings for the Primary, Secondary and Unknown Handicapping Factors.  A raw probability rating, weighted for the specific race type and conditions, is then calculated from these data and adjusted for the racetrack takeout; thereby producing the contender's adjusted win probability rating and fair odds; since it was calculated in relation to the specific group of horses assembled for this race today, we call the rating "True Class Today".

We attempt to quantify Thoroughbred Class by evaluating each Primary Factor independently (rating), in relationship to all factors (weighting); insofar as they contribute to the horse's Class (estimating). The resulting numerical value attributed to each horse represents our best attempt to estimate its probability of winning, based upon its Class, Breeding, Speed, ability to sustain a Pace and Current Form; as influenced by the Secondary and Unknown Handicapping Factors.

Akin to a major league baseball player's batting average, it represents the probability of winning this race today.  Thus, a horse with a "True Class Today" rating of 245 is estimated to have a 24.5% probability of winning today, its raw odds are 3:1 and its Fair Odds will be 4:1 or greater. CU@the$window!

Dynamic Contender Valuation

Thoroughbred Racing at Santa Anita Park

Three minutes to post and you're about to make a play on a legitimate win contender offering 9:2 (nine-to-two) odds, with a quick glance at the board from the betting line, you notice the public has taken interest in your horse; bettors have driven the price all the way down to 3:1 (three-to-one) at the last tick, you step out of the line wondering what to do.  At odds of 9:2 (nine-to-two), $20 to WIN would've paid $110 but at 3:1 (three-to-one) odds, the payout will be $80; a 27% reduction, is the play still worth the risk of a wager?

The Realm of Gambling

Thoroughbred Horse Racing at The Great Race Place Santa Anita Park


"A whole lot of people got to get up real early and do a whole lot of work so I could place that wager, it's about connecting to those winning energy currents that begin to peak early in the morning on race day and buzz all around us like a whirling dynamo by post time; and that's a dynamic process."


Omar Montes de Oca
Founder and Chief Operating Officer


The Law of Large Numbers


Wagering on thoroughbred horse races is a thinking person's game, one in which the players who apply skill with discipline can expect to make a profit.  This is due to one of the principles of probability, referred to as the Law of Large Numbers; which provides that despite extended streaks one way or another, the frequency of events with the same likelihood of occurrence will even out over time, reverting to an expected value with enough trials or instances.

The Totalizator Board

Thoroughbred Racing at the Great Race Place


THE QUESTION: To Bet or Not to Bet

The tote board is a random self organizing system that comes alive as it channels the crowd's energy, armed with knowledge of the Fair Odds (after the racetrack takeout) for each horse in the race; horses offering overlaid odds are readily identified.