Win Probability

True Class Today

Thoroughbred Horse Racing at Santa Anita Park
WIN PROBABILITY

Algorithms assign numerical ratings for the Primary, Secondary and Unknown Handicapping Factors.  A raw probability rating, weighted for the specific race type and conditions, is then calculated from these data and adjusted for the racetrack takeout; thereby producing the contender's adjusted win probability rating and fair odds; since it was calculated in relation to the specific group of horses assembled for this race today, we call the rating "True Class Today".

 

We attempt to quantify Thoroughbred Class by evaluating each Primary Factor independently (rating), in relationship to all factors (weighting); insofar as they contribute to the horse's Class (estimating).

The resulting numerical value attributed to each horse represents our best attempt to estimate its probability of winning, based upon its Class, Breeding, Speed, ability to sustain a Pace and Current Form; as influenced by the Secondary and Unknown Handicapping Factors.

Akin to a major league baseball player's batting average, it represents the probability of winning this race today.  Thus, a horse with a "True Class Today" rating of 245 is estimated to have a 24.5% probability of winning today and its Fair Odds should be 3:1.

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