Playing Overlays

Step 1:

Horse players tap a button and HANDYTAPP instantly displays the legitimate contenders in any horse race, together with their estimated win probability, fair odds (after the racetrack takeout) and wager bifurcation point.

Step 2:

HANDYTAPP sorts the contenders by Trueclass-Today (Win Probability) and provides a class-par requirement for the race, any horse with a Trueclass-Today rating which is equal to or greater than the class-par; has a right to WIN the race and should thus be viewed as a legitimate WIN contender.

Step 3:

HANDYTAPP draws upon a proprietary hierarchical base of empirical data consisting of more than 70,000 races, dating as far back as the year 2004; to run a series of database queries which produce one of three possible recommendations for the race:


Bet the TOP HORSE to WIN.  Odds must remain greater than the wager bifurcation point at all times.  OR ELSE PASS THE RACE!


TOP HORSE will be vulnerable.  Bet the legitimate WIN contender, with the highest Trueclass-Today (Win Probability) rating; which is being offered on the tote board, at FAIR ODDS or greater.  IF NONE PASS THE RACE!






Step 4:

Quite simply, when the recommendation is "STRONG"...  Handytapp provides the wager bifurcation point, which represents the point when the horse player must part company with the wager; because it will no longer be a profitable wager over the long term.

For example, if HANDYTAPP displays a contender's fair odds as 2:1 (two-to-1) with a wager bifurcation point of 6:5 (six-to-five), then at 7:5 (seven-to-five) it's a play; but as soon as the horse hits 6:5 (six-to-five) on the tote board, the race becomes a PASS.

Though the horse may well go on to win the race at 4:5 (four-to-five) odds, once any contender's odds go beyond the bifurcation point; it is no longer mathematically worth the risk of a wager.

The reason why the race becomes a PASS, a database query over thousands of races has determined that due to the specific race type, conditions and restrictions, the historical performance of the algorithmset and an existing numerical advantage which is very strong; the contender should be classified as STRONG.

As a safeguard for new fans, HANDYTAPP will not automatically recommend to bet against a "STRONG" contender.  However, advanced players can examine the legitimate contenders and identify the play(s) offering the most value in every race.

A word about PASSING races.  Just as no horse player can beat the track takeout by betting only on favorites, no horse player can bet on every race and expect to turn a profit.  HORSE PLAYERS ARE GAMBLERS.  Remember that In general, only 5% of gamblers are capable of winning consistently over the long term.  Thus only you the player, can guarantee profit.

One of the keys is to PASS the races that do not offer sufficient wagering value, as well as, any races where you find yourself throwing darts at a board; in order to maintain a higher strike rate (percentage of wagers you actually cash).  The other key will be rigorous, disciplined, money management, with strictly budgeted WIN bets; designed to build a bank roll, before even thinking about an Exacta, Pick Three or any exotic wagers.

HANDYTAPP will produce a minimum of three (minimum not average - often 4 or more) winners per day on any race card, at any racetrack; this is scientific and well documented.  Moreover, three winners will be a good day, for any horse player who can maintain a 50% strike rate by wagering on no more than three losers in the same day.  Therefore, horse players who wish to go home with extra money in their pocket, will usually PASS at least two races on an eight race card.

A STRONG recommendation is by no means a guarantee, keep in mind that no horse is guaranteed to even show today; so don't go jumping puddles.  Besides, if you want to go around jumping puddles, then you don't need this data.  Handytapp is about using science for the art and beauty of cashing win mutuels on a daily basis and the exhilaration of quietly bringing your $32.00 horse home with a WIN ticket in your shirt pocket.

Step 5:

By contrast when the recommendation is: OVERLAY... Users can readily identify exactly which of the legitimate WIN contenders, are being offered at greater than fair odds on the tote board and of those; the one with the highest TRUECLASS-TODAY (Win Probability) rating will be the play, BET-to-WIN.

Playing overlays is the name of the game and it's a dynamic process, the tote board is alive right up until the start of the race and even while the race is running as the on-line wagers are closed, accounted for and aggregated to the pool.  Thus in order to be as certain as possible about the price of an overlay on the tote board, horse players should place wagers as late as possible, one or two minutes prior to post time.

Due to the late action on the tote board, at times an overlay will be borderline and may not end up as an overlay; in such case, it is best to either abandon the play in favor of another "possible overlay" or pass.  For example, say at five minutes to post, there is a horse with fair odds of 3:1 (three-to-one), offering 6:1 (six-to-one) on the board; it looks like a good overlay, then at three minutes to post the odds come down to 9:2 (nine-to-two), and at two minutes to post down to 7:2 (seven-to-two).  Chances are the horse will show up at 3:1 (three-to-one) or even 5:2 (five-to-two) as the race is running and your WIN ticket will not be a play on overlay after all.

Also keep in mind that due to late action on the tote board, a horse can go beyond the wager bifurcation point in the same way.  If there is a chance that a play might go beyond the bifurcation point after you purchase the ticket, then it's better to pass the race; one should not force it and hope for the best, there are too many races.  Strike rate, strike rate, strike rate, when in doubt pass the race; keeping a good strike rate is crucial for long term profit.

A BET OVERLAY recommendation is exactly that, play an overlay; there's an art to it and it has to do with the way in which the tote board channels the crowd's energy.

New fans, just remember the overlay selection process, always play the overlay with the highest TRUECLASS-TODAY rating; because that will be the one with the highest probability of winning.

HANDYTAPP provides six different factors which more advanced players can utilize, depending upon the level of horse racing knowledge and expertise; to safely eliminate overlaid contenders under the various conditions of racing.  CLASS, FORM, PACE, SPEED, LINEAGE, ENTELECHY (potential).

For example, in a race with multiple overlays, advanced handicappers can always safely eliminate any horse with a negative entelechy (potential), the horse with the lowest speed figure, the horse with the lowest pace rating, the horse with the lowest form; and on turf only, the horse with the lowest lineage.

There will be some overlap but this process will usually produce at least two safe eliminations and a good starting point for advanced handicappers to then, go back and apply their racing knowledge to the task of comparing the remaining contenders in search of some advantage.

In a dirt sprint, the play may be the pace presser with a clever rider in a race full of heat; on the other hand, a turf route might call for a play on the horse with the highest lineage rating because it happens to own the strongest late kick too.  It's all about the player's knowledge, experience and ability.

In other words, HANDYTAPP is the new fan's friend, with procedures designed to help maintain a higher strike rate by passing on unfavorable races, while placing wagers with optimum value in order to beat the racetrack takeout and remain profitable on a daily basis.

And... HANDYTAPP is the advanced player's dream, with unique features such as entelechy and the wager bifurcation point just a fingertap away. 

Handicapping Methodologies

Individual algorithms classify and rate entries based on DRF CLASSIC past performance data, performing calculations in strict adherence to the following methodologies for each handicapping factor:

CLASS: (The old jockey club method of weights and scales)

SPEED: (Beyer)

PACE: (Sartin)

FORM: (Proprietary)

LINEAGE: (Proprietary)


UNKNOWN FACTORS: (Proprietary)

TRUECLASS-TODAY: (Proprietary)

A raw probability rating, weighted for the specific race type and conditions, is calculated from these data and adjusted for the racetrack takeout, producing the contender's adjusted win probability rating and fair odds.  Since it was calculated in relation to the specific group of horses assembled for this race today, we call the rating TrueClass-Today.

Akin to a major league baseball player's batting average, it represents the probability of winning this race today.  Thus, a horse with a "True Class Today" rating of 245 is estimated to have a 24.5% probability of winning today, its raw odds are 3:1 and Fair Odds should be set at 4:1.