The Racing Condition and Current Form of a Thoroughbred
"Horses are the same as human beings where condition is the test of superiority. Winners repeat frequently while the defeated are apt to be defeated almost continuously. Condition has more to do with a horse winning or losing a race than the weight it carries. A horse in poor condition cannot beat one of his own class. A high class horse could not win a race with a feather on his back if he is not in condition. It is as well to play horses that are in winning form. A horse in winning condition generally repeats or runs into the money. Different tracks cause decided changes in form frequently. Study horses' whims and fancies for certain tracks and you will see a good lay; but a high class horse will do his best on any track."
No matter any existing advantage whether Class or otherwise, a horse which is not in top Current Form today, will be vulnerable of losing to another horse; if the other horse will be running at peak form.
Here we point to one of the greatest "Class" horses ever, and possibly the greatest we will ever see in our lifetimes, Zenyatta, the queen; who did everything EVER asked of her with a dance and a smile - true Thoroughbred Class.
There is no possible way Blame could have beaten Zenyatta, unless as was the case, he had been pointing towards the race, was cranked to the utmost, perfectly timed to reach the peak of his form cycle in that Breeder's Cup race.
However, aside from the fact that Blame benefitted from having the best rider in the universe Garret Gomez aboard, who pulled all the right strings at all the right moments, emerging in the right place at the right time to put away the Baffert entry coming home in hand; it was a brilliant ride, with Blame basically holding on for dear life those final 50 yds.
Moreover, if you watch the QUEEN at the start, we know she often started at the rear of the pack, but usually not that far back; and it seemed like she may have been a step off on this day as noticed by Trevor's keen eye.
It is therefore imperative for handicappers to be informed regarding the Current Form of each horse in a race. What is the trainer's intent? Has the horse been pointed to this race? Is this race a tune up? The best horse does not always win every race, in fact, it will not win if not sound, unfit, out of form or if it is simply not the trainer's intention to win today.
The algorithm which calculates Current Form is based upon our own proprietary method, which has not ever been published anywhere. Among other things, this algorithm looks at a horse's workout tab and finish position in its last five races.
Moreover, the algorithm has been programmed to assign greater value to a good workout which occured since last race, as opposed to earlier on the tab; and, assigns greater value to a horse that was in the lead or within striking position at the stretch call in its last race, with extra credit if the horse won the race or managed to close ground on the leader.
Thoroughbred Form in Action:
As BLAME enters the race in razor sharp form, barely holds on to beat the classier ZENYATTA, the great queen.